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This is great!It's a good predictor of house prices, from the real estate king's financial results

This is great!It's a good predictor of house prices, from the real estate king's financial results

Author: Rui Chao Construction Source: unknown Release time: 2018-04-18 10:51 Views:

Recently, Country Garden, known as the "first house enterprise in the universe", announced its 2017 financial report, and its performance was very beautiful。

In 2017, Country Garden achieved contract sales of about RMB 5,508.0亿元,共经营1468个项目,覆盖中国大陆30个省、220个市、768个县╱镇区,Become the world's largest residential developer, leading the industry。

For most people, the number of 100 billion may not be intuitive, because we often do not use such a large number of numbers。

For example, take the yogurt we drink every day, in 2017 China's market size of about 120 billion, Country Garden's sales can top four and a half yogurt industry。

Ten years ago, Country Garden's revenue was only 15.7 billion yuan, which has increased 35 times in just ten years, making it one of the top real estate companies in China and the world。

It can be said that Country Garden this company, in China's real estate industry, the most worth studying a company, only by studying Country Garden, you can understand China's real estate industry, read the code behind this business。

Full of legends and many firsts

Founded in 1992 and headquartered in Shunde, Foshan, Guangdong Province, Country Garden is the largest urban housing developer in China and is listed on the Forbes Global 500 list of listed companies。

At present, the company's business includes property development, construction and installation, decoration, property management, property investment, hotel development and management。

Country Garden's development history is full of legendary colors, creating many Chinese real estate "firsts" :

- In 1999, Guangzhou Country Garden opened during the Spring Festival, breaking the precedent of "not opening during the Spring Festival", and also opened the prelude of "holiday real estate marketing" in China;And in the country's first fully decorated selling houses, see the building bus, shake the bead to take the form of chips。

In 2002, Country Garden Phoenix (Guangzhou) opened, with the marketing concept of "white-collar workers can also live in villas", set off a wave of villa buying, the day of sales 7.500 million yuan, creating the myth of China's real estate sales at that time。

- In 2013, the sales of Country Garden jumped to 106 billion yuan, which completed 47.6 billion yuan of sales in 2012, becoming the big dark horse of the "100 billion club" of real estate enterprises。


2017年Total revenue reached 226.9 billion yuan, up about 48% year-on-year;Gross profit margin is 25.9%, up 4.8 percent。

In 2017, the average sales price of revenue recognised from delivered properties was approximately $7,863 per square metre, compared to approximately $6,191 per square metre in 2016.提高27%

Benefiting from the hot market in the third - and fourth-tier cities in the past year, the company's overall sales reduction rate is as high as 81.5%。As of the end of 2017, the company has delisted and has contracted a land bank of about 2.800 million square meters, abundant soil reserves。

Cycle Industry forecast period


First of all, take a look at the price trend of 100 cities in China in the past eight years, you can see that the property market prices show the characteristics of cyclical fluctuations。

For real estate projects, the overall project cycle is generally 2-3 years, and the following four steps are required:

1. Bid to acquire land, obtain construction permits, etc.;

2, start construction, construction input;

3, apply for pre-sale certificate, start pre-sale;

4. Completion and delivery。

Therefore, real estate enterprises need to take land and build buildings in advance, and the management of enterprises needs to predict the cycle of the property market in advance。

Under normal circumstances, in the rising stage of the macroeconomic cycle, the investment scale, market demand and supply of the real estate industry will increase correspondingly; otherwise, there will be a contraction in the real estate market demand, an increase in business risk, and a decline in investment scale。

As an ordinary investor, there is no macro research perspective, and non-real estate industry insiders, how to quickly predict the rise and fall of housing prices?

The financial reports of listed real estate companies actually hide the judgment of various real estate industry insiders on the future, which also helps us to clear the fog of the property market。

Rapid development of accurate judgment

If you want to see the management's judgment on the future trend of the real estate company, Xiaoni has to take you to understand two balance sheet items:Land use rights and properties under constructionGenerally speaking, it isTake land and build houses

Land use rightLand, which is what we usually refer to, has accounted for more than half of the cost of building a house for Country Garden, which is the most important raw material for real estate enterprises。(The cost analysis will be explained in detail tomorrow)

Due to relevant legal constraints, real estate companies can not hoard land for a long time, according to Article 37 of the Land Administration Law of the People's Republic of China:

No unit or individual shall be allowed to leave idle or go barren。Land occupied for non-agricultural construction that has gone through the examination and approval procedures,Not used for a year but ready to be planted and harvested,The collective or individual that originally cultivated the land shall resume cultivation,It can also be cultivated by land use units;Construction has not begun for more than one year,Idle expenses shall be paid in accordance with the provisions of provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government;

If the land is not used for two consecutive years, the people's government at or above the county level shall, with the approval of the original approving organ, recover the land use right of the land use unit without compensation。

Therefore, real estate enterprises must judge the cycle more accurately, once they take too much land but do not have enough cash to develop, the capital chain will be broken。

Property under constructionThe house is being built, including the cost of construction (that is, the expenditure required to build the house), land use rights and borrowing costs。

When a house is built, land use rights are transferred to the subject of property under construction。

If the enterprise is at the bottom of the housing price, it is expected that the growth rate of housing prices will accelerate in the future, it will be the first to build houses to ensure that high prices can be shipped;If it is expected that the growth rate of house prices will slow down in the future, it will choose to give priority to the existing cash and do not rush to build a house。



A picture is worth a thousand words!

As the sales king of real estate enterprises, how about the level of anticipation of the real estate cycle in the past eight years, after reading this figure, I believe you will know。


Overall, the ratio of land to property under construction and housing prices are inversely correlated。

When housing prices accelerate, Country Garden will accelerate the construction of land in its hands to build houses。

It is Country Garden that has been able to step right in recent years, thus directly making it one of the largest real estate enterprises in China today。

Source: Corporate announcement

If you are interested, you can put the above indicators together with stock prices and performance analysis, perhaps you will have more interesting findings。


In a specific period of time, whether a real estate company tends to take land or build houses is to study the code of house prices。

For Country Garden, China's urbanization process is far from over, and it will continue to focus on the housing and related needs brought about by urbanization, and build a resource integration platform covering the whole life cycle of customers。

Of course, land and properties under construction are just the tip of the iceberg in Country Garden's financial report。

You also want to know what the cost of the house you bought, how is Country Garden to do the king of sales step by step, welcome to lock tomorrow's early property market, for you to further decrypt the world property market sales champion Country Garden。

Disclaimer: The information in this article and the stocks involved are for reference only, not as a basis for trading, and the operation is at its own risk;The stock market is risky, so be careful!



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